Fold Equity

[PokerCrucible]

www.DragTheBar.com Poker Hand Converter Game 39928455252, Thu Sep 1 04:39:16 2011 ET
BlackChip Poker - Tournament - 3000 Guaranteed Rebuys Addon (39597156) No Limit Hold'em (2,500/5,000) ante 500 Full Ring Real Money, 7 players
View in Poker Hand Replayer

seat 1: PokerCrucible(BB) is Hero:46,678
seat 2: collegeguy07(UTG):384,615
seat 3: eric7777(MP):232,136
seat 4: matanglawin86(HJ):141,064
seat 5: DevilzWork(CO):124,002
seat 7: Olavo777(BTN):123,280
seat 9: AnotherJBourneBeat(SB):26,725

HOLE CARDS: (11,000) Hero is BB with A K
collegeguy07 raises to 12,500, eric7777 calls 12,500, 4 folds, PokerCrucible(Hero) raises to 46,178, 1 folds, eric7777 calls 33,678

FLOP: (110,856) Q 5 6

TURN: 6

RIVER: 7

FINAL POT: (110,856)
eric7777 wins 110,856


My question is would I be better off just calling the raise from the BB and then betting either the flop or the turn? Do I have fold equity here? Thank you for all thoughts and comments.
After running in Wiz - it says to push - Hmmmmm LOL Maybe I don't feel so bad after all LOL
PC

[tallscotuk]

With 6.5BB adjusted I think your only option here is to get it in pre. If you were slightly deeper and you had a specific read that he would shove the flop no matter what then there is a very weak argument for calling.

You only have FE against really bad players here. When you shove here you are offering him great odds to call. Secondly, there are no hands that a UTG raiser will be folding against your shove. He must have a hand that is worth playing against anyone else at the table and when he opens he must know that you are going to be calling wide with such a short stack. The only hands that you MAY have had FE against were the bottom 30% of his range and I cant see him playing them UTG.

[Hotspur1882]

From Harrington's M perspective, the table looks like this:
M = 4.2, seat 1: PokerCrucible(BB) is Hero:46,678
M = 35, seat 2: collegeguy07(UTG):384,615
M = 21.1, seat 3: eric7777(MP):232,136
M = 12.8, seat 4: matanglawin86(HJ):141,064
M = 11.3, seat 5: DevilzWork(CO):124,002
M = 11.2, seat 7: Olavo777(BTN):123,280
M = 2.4, seat 9: AnotherJBourneBeat(SB):26,725


According to his zone system, this puts you in the (bad) red zone. Here's what he says about that:
"In the Red Zone you've lost any ability to make a bet other than an all-in bet. If you make a smaller bet, it consumes so much of your stack that you're committed to the pot anyway. In that case, you might as well go all-in, since it gives you the best chance of winning the pot with your first bet."

So, to consider the hand Harrington-style:
1) We're pushing or folding (i.e. not raising or calling) due to being in the red zone

2) Our hand is strong (and might well be the best hand we see for a while) - this is a strong argument for pushing

3) Our position is poor, but this is negated if we push - this is neutral

4) We're not first in, and worse still there's been an early-position raiser and a (middle-position) caller - these are strong arguments for folding

5) The raiser and the caller means that there are extra chips in the pot - from a tournament comeback perspective this is an argument for pushing

6) A push might win the pot uncontested - this is an argument for pushing

7) If we push we're getting pot odds of 0.8/1 (36,000/46,178), meaning that we need to win the hand 55.6% (1/(0.8+1)) to break even. According to PokerStove, AKo against two random hands is 48.2% - this is an argument for folding

8) Assuming the blinds don't go up, if we fold we'll have to post the small blind (and the ante) on the very next hand (i.e. there's no breathing space) - this is an argument for pushing

9) Tournament payout considerations. There's no info as to whether this is the final table, and what the payout increases are, but if it is the final table and the payout increase from 7th to 6th is worthwhile then it's worth noting that there is one stack shorter than ours - this is an argument for folding

So, a mixed bag - and good luck doing all this analysis in real-time whilst your time-bank ticks down!

Given Harrington's strong preference for being first-in when pushing (which we're not), and the poor pot odds on offer, I'd lean towards folding. But I don't think pushing is a terrible mistake, given the other considerations listed.

Of course, if you're going to push then you must win your flips. If you discover how to do this, please tell me how!

[tallscotuk]

With 6.5BB adjusted I think your only option here is to get it in pre. If you were slightly deeper and you had a specific read that he would shove the flop no matter what then there is a very weak argument for calling.

You only have FE against really bad players here. When you shove here you are offering him great odds to call. Secondly, there are no hands that a UTG raiser will be folding against your shove. He must have a hand that is worth playing against anyone else at the table and when he opens he must know that you are going to be calling wide with such a short stack. The only hands that you MAY have had FE against were the bottom 30% of his range and I cant see him playing them UTG.

Sorry, I missed the original call although everything I said still stands. You may gain a fraction of FE if the EP raised light hoping to steal, especially if he has a tight table image and has been card dead AND the MP called light because he is a loose player. There is a chance that the EP may fold as he is worried about the guy behind him and then the MP might panic and fold as he was hoping to see a cheap flop. That would still be a mistake as one of them is going to have odds to shove any two.

Getting it in here is so important especially if you have a chance to triple up. The money difference between 7th and 6th is so insignificant you can not worry about it. Winning is all you can think about in this situation and you have a monster. You are going to be dominating most of their holdings and flipping against the vast majority of what is left. Yes it is a pain when you run into AA/KK but if you are folding AK in situations like this you will end up losing more money then you will win by creeping up a single place.

[Hotspur1882]

From Harrington's M perspective, the table looks like this:
M = 4.2, seat 1: PokerCrucible(BB) is Hero:46,678
M = 35, seat 2: collegeguy07(UTG):384,615
M = 21.1, seat 3: eric7777(MP):232,136
M = 12.8, seat 4: matanglawin86(HJ):141,064
M = 11.3, seat 5: DevilzWork(CO):124,002
M = 11.2, seat 7: Olavo777(BTN):123,280
M = 2.4, seat 9: AnotherJBourneBeat(SB):26,725


According to his zone system, this puts you in the (bad) red zone. Here's what he says about that:
"In the Red Zone you've lost any ability to make a bet other than an all-in bet. If you make a smaller bet, it consumes so much of your stack that you're committed to the pot anyway. In that case, you might as well go all-in, since it gives you the best chance of winning the pot with your first bet."

So, to consider the hand Harrington-style:
1) We're pushing or folding (i.e. not raising or calling) due to being in the red zone

2) Our hand is strong (and might well be the best hand we see for a while) - this is a strong argument for pushing

3) Our position is poor, but this is negated if we push - this is neutral

4) We're not first in, and worse still there's been an early-position raiser and a (middle-position) caller - these are strong arguments for folding

5) The raiser and the caller means that there are extra chips in the pot - from a tournament comeback perspective this is an argument for pushing

6) A push might win the pot uncontested - this is an argument for pushing

7) If we push we're getting pot odds of 0.8/1 (36,000/46,178), meaning that we need to win the hand 55.6% (1/(0.8+1)) to break even. According to PokerStove, AKo against two random hands is 48.2% - this is an argument for folding

8) Assuming the blinds don't go up, if we fold we'll have to post the small blind (and the ante) on the very next hand (i.e. there's no breathing space) - this is an argument for pushing

9) Tournament payout considerations. There's no info as to whether this is the final table, and what the payout increases are, but if it is the final table and the payout increase from 7th to 6th is worthwhile then it's worth noting that there is one stack shorter than ours - this is an argument for folding

So, a mixed bag - and good luck doing all this analysis in real-time whilst your time-bank ticks down!

Given Harrington's strong preference for being first-in when pushing (which we're not), and the poor pot odds on offer, I'd lean towards folding. But I don't think pushing is a terrible mistake, given the other considerations listed.

Of course, if you're going to push then you must win your flips. If you discover how to do this, please tell me how!

Upon reading this again, I think my maths is wrong in point 7. It should say:
7)
a) If we push and both opponents fold, we win the hand
b) If we push and get one caller, our contribution to the pot was 42.1% (46,678/(64,178+46,678)). According to PokerStove, AKo against one random hand is 65.3%.
c) If we push and get two callers, our contribution to the pot was 32.3% (46,678/(97,856+46,678)). According to PokerStove, AKo against two random hands is 48.2%.
These figures are a very strong argument for pushing.

In summary therefore:
- Points 2, 5, 6, 7, and 8 support pushing
- Points 4 and 9 support folding

Despite Harrington's strong preference for being first-in when pushing (which we're not), the great pot odds on offer and the strength of our hand overwhelmingly suggest that pushing is the correct option.

[PokerCrucible]

This was the final table, the payout from 7th to 6th might have been 50 bux or so. My goal was to get in the top 2 as that is where the substantial payouts were. However, on that tournament I ended up with a 98% ROI so I was ok with it - LOL

PC