What Does it Take to Give Credit for a Set?

[madtom1337]

Hey People...

Just wondering what kind of stats, positional dynamic, history or lack there of, board texture, and anything else, that you guys need to be seeing before you can give a villain credit for a set that beats your AA/KK/AK-TPTK in a heads-up or 3-way pot. How nitty does a guy have to be? Are we always getting it in on drawy boards to play vs. draws? Always in a blind vs. blind or button vs. blind situation? A few HH's to relate some arguments to perhaps... Don't have to bother going through them all if you don't have the time, but these might just help a discussion if this whole topic is far too vague... I'm just wondering where we draw the line when we smell a set... Anyway, here they are:

1. KK vs. Nit...
   
   Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players -
   
   theoohmkk (UTG): $67.05
   Tuffdawg (CO): $54.80
   KephreN85 (BTN): $72.60
   Hero (SB): $91.90
   makc9I (BB): $95.05
   
   Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with K K
   1 fold, Tuffdawg raises to $1.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6.50, 1 fold, Tuffdawg calls $4.75
   
   Flop: ($13.50) 6 Q 2 (2 players)
   Hero bets $6.50, Tuffdawg calls $6.50
   
   Turn: ($26.50) T (2 players)
   Hero checks, Tuffdawg bets $15, Hero calls $15
   
   River: ($56.50) 4 (2 players)
   Hero checks, Tuffdawg bets $26.80 all in, Hero calls $26.80
   
   Villain (130 Hands): 13/8/2.0; 0 3B; 0/9 WTSD; 100 CB; 50 FvsCB
   
   Clearly beat? Only ever against AA/QQ here?
   
   
   
2. AA Slowplayed Badly in Unintentionally Multi-way Pot vs. Nitty Reg...
   
   Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
   
   
   ndimen (UTG): $25.50
   Ajnaran411 (CO): $145.45
   mdeoya (BTN): $50.00
   Hero (SB): $52.55
   AlwaysTrustMe (BB): $86.65
   
   Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with A A
   1 fold, Ajnaran411 raises to $1.50, mdeoya raises to $3, Hero calls $2.75, AlwaysTrustMe calls $2.50, Ajnaran411 calls $1.50
   
   Flop: ($12.00) K T K (4 players)
   Hero checks, AlwaysTrustMe checks, Ajnaran411 checks, mdeoya checks
   
   Turn: ($12.00) 8 (4 players)
   Hero bets $7.50, AlwaysTrustMe calls $7.50, Ajnaran411 folds, mdeoya folds
   
   River: ($27.00) 7 (2 players)
   Hero checks, AlwaysTrustMe bets $25, Hero says "MAN", Hero requests TIME, Hero says "can I make this fold...", Hero says "...", Hero says "I smell a FH", Hero calls $25
   
   Villain in the BB (250 Hands): 16/12/4.5; 6.8 3B; 15 WTSD; 67 W$SD; 45 CB; 57 FvsCB
   
   Can we really put him on 88 or TT here? Seems so narrow...
   
   
   
3. KK vs. Another Tight Reg
   
   Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
   
   
   theoohmkk (BB): $50.00
   Tuffdawg (UTG): $50.00
   RHoffi (MP): $70.10
   KephreN85 (CO): $52.10
   Hero (BTN): $80.80
   makc9I (SB): $82.30
   
   Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with K K
   1 fold, RHoffi calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.25, 1 fold, theoohmkk calls $1.75, RHoffi calls $1.75
   
   Flop: ($7.00) 4 6 3 (3 players)
   theoohmkk checks, RHoffi bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50, theoohmkk raises to $7.50, RHoffi folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $5
   
   Turn: ($24.50) 8 (2 players)
   theoohmkk bets $16, Hero says "ahhh...", Hero says "I guess you've got a set", theoohmkk says "no free cards :X", Hero says "my @$@&in hud won't pop up", Hero requests TIME, Hero says "so I can't check how aggy you are with your draws", Hero folds
   
   Villain (1.1k Hands): 17/14/3.3; 4.1 3B; 22 WTSD; 57 W$SD; 71 CB; 62 FvCB; 7 Raise CB; 4 CR Flop
   
   Set? Board is drawy... The guy doesn't really raise much...

I'm aware I talk too much in the chat box, lol. Gets real boring just sitting there clicking though sometimes. Also, I'm aware I played these hands badly, I should've 4-bet that AA but was trying to keep a fish in, suspected the original PFR may 4-bet if I flat called, and didn't expect the BB to call, but that hand in particular looks awfully played so I thought I better explain myself. Anyway, you can all let me know what your thoughts/philosophies/strategies are for these kind of situations when you're getting heavy action with a strong pair and suspect a set. I seem to find it hard to find the fold button and I suspect I might be making mistakes where I should be making a "thin" fold, if I can put it like that.

[gilford1]

hand1:nothing u can get value from on flop,go for one gd river bet or small turn and small river bets
hand2:you say his range seems so narrow but 3 other people saw the flop so the chances someone has a piece increase alot,the only hand you beat is a busted draw with this hand ,would he bet so big on riiver if bluffing?
hand3:a ck raise into 2 people,you should never really be calling flop bet imo

when facing a raise ask urself
1.is he value betting worse
2.is he overly aggrro with low W$SD,lowFTCB,high call open,high aggression,high WWSF
3.facing river bets,have draws missed that have no SD value
4.would he bet so big if he was bluffing?(big bets fron fish usually mean they have it)

make sure u listen to the answers

[blsmur]

Hi
I have been watching the Big Game IV on party poker There is a hand with Phil Laack PLaying KK
the flop is all under ten with 2 suited cards and there is a raise and a call before its phils turn to act, and phil just says " I think I better throw this away"
and folds KK with the very best hand At that point, but the turn brought 3rd flush card and the other 2 players fought to the river,with a flush winning with cards that should have been folded pre-flop in my humble opinion
I realize its not a set but the principle is the same
it certainly opened my eyes to why professional poker players are professional .

regards

[madtom1337]

Yeah I can bring myself to fold my AA/KK if it's a multi-way pot and there's heavy action. When it's HU or 3-way post-flop though, it gets a little more difficult, particularly HU.

Thanks for your answers gilford.

[Macca]

This happened to me last night, had not been on long, in this case though I feel maybe I was too hasty getting my chips in had not seen this player play any hands yet.

Full Tilt, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools by CardRunners - http://www.cardrunners.com/

leo-vfr: $9.73 (97.3 bb)
Dyszka: $11.53 (115.3 bb)
Dona_d: $9.62 (96.2 bb)
TheRag9: $9.64 (96.4 bb)
BoAron: $10 (100 bb)
j2nkujuta: $10 (100 bb)
Hero: $11.18 (111.8 bb)
LuxiKeks: $15.67 (156.7 bb)
BettyBeBettin: $10.85 (108.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Kh Kd
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 4 folds, Dona_d calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 9s Ts 6d (2 players)
Dona_d bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, Dona_d raises to $2.70, Hero raises to $10.88 and is all-in, Dona_d calls $6.62 and is all-in

Turn: ($19.29) 9d (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($19.29) 4d (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $19.29 pot ($1.28 rake)
Final Board: 9s Ts 6d 9d 4d
Hero showed Kh Kd and lost (-$9.62 net)
Dona_d showed Td Th and won $18.01 ($8.39 net)

[madtom1337]

I don't mind stacking off there, Macca. Unless you have some read that this guy is a total nit that will never call your open and make that move with draws but only when set-mining, the villain can have so many draws there on the two-tone board with the 9 and T.

I dunno though, maybe we should be being more conservative? I mean, if we put our villains on EITHER a draw or a set, half the time they have a set, and half the time they have a really good amount of equity against us, so on average, it's going to be a -EV situation, so maybe we should start being a lot more conservative in these kinds of situations? It's hard to say really, because then we're going to be easy to push around... Hmm...

[matsyendra]

Overpairs can be soooooo volatile. If a nit (i.e. a player like me) starts building a pot against my overpair, I need to really slow down and think about his range. Nits are rarely building a pot with TP.

Macca,
No worries, with no info I'd be playing it real similar. Though I should probably be more cautious with less info.


I dunno though, maybe we should be being more conservative? I mean, if we put our villains on EITHER a draw or a set, half the time they have a set, and half the time they have a really good amount of equity against us, so on average, it's going to be a -EV situation, so maybe we should start being a lot more conservative in these kinds of situations? It's hard to say really, because then we're going to be easy to push around... Hmm...

I dont think we can put them on either a set or a draw half the time. We'll still have those poor players that overvalue TP.
In general I like to treat overpairs with the small hand/ small pot mentality. Oh yeah, and I would announce tot he table that I have a HUD and its not working

[madtom1337]

Lol xD It was doing my head in and I needed to vent! :P Realised after that I must have pressed "Stop Import" in between sessions and needed to restart it, lol...

[Macca]

Ha ha yu do like to chat at the felt dont ya Tom! Well reading peoples thoughts I am not too disapointed in this hand and yesterday it happened again when I raised AK pre 5x blind after 2 limpers who call and after the flop hits x2K I reraise and the chips end up going all in, both players I had a note on indicating I should be good and one player shows K10o and the other shows 22 so in one hand I saw both sides yes people will set mine and call when probally shouldnt pre, but just as many players will go to war with top pair worse kicker.