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  1. #1

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Pittsburgh, PA

    Default Sick spot with top set (deep)

    Hey guys just played this hand where I faced uneasy decision otr...

    Winning Poker Network - $1 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    BB: 193.84 BB
    Hero (SB): 216.13 BB

    Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

    Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

    Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 6 9 8
    BB checks, Hero bets 3.8 BB, BB calls 3.8 BB

    Turn: (13.6 BB, 2 players) K
    BB checks, Hero bets 12 BB, BB calls 12 BB

    River: (37.6 BB, 2 players) 4
    BB checks, Hero bets 33 BB, [color=red]BB raises to 175.04 BB

    Opponent here played pretty straight forward, not agressive at all, didn't c\r not even once and I was c betting around 75%
    I played 2 tables for 1.5 hour and his stats were 96\75\19; f3bet 60;cbet 48; Fcbet 44... it looks like lagish stats but he was playing relatively straight forward, was folding to a lot of 3bets, never c\r throughout the match, called with any piece otf, almost never saw him big bluff\move.
    So I guess giving villian description it sounds like I should've fold for such a big c\r otr there but at the same time it's HU and I have top set on relatively dry board. Before he made shove he tanked for a while, used half his timeband, and also got coolered on second table a few hands ago AQs<JJ... so that was the only thing that kinda made me think that might've overplayed his two pair or something because he was down 2.5 buy ins.
    I lean towards fold here, any thoughts ?

  2. #2

    Default Re: Sick spot with top set (deep)

    The problem with him being so loose is that we have to give him credit for all of the 75 and T7 combos and this is a credible line with those hands so even by the river I don't think we can discount any. I do think that with sets he would check raise by the turn some of the time though. I think would be more worried about being drawn out on or a bad card coming to kill his action. So lets be a little generous and say he has 2 combos of each of the sets that you crush. That is 32 combos that beat you and 6 that you beat. To break even we need to win here about 37% of the time so he can have 1.59 more combos of hands that beat us than we beat, or he needs to have about 20 combos we beat. So if we can come up with 14 bluff combos (hands like A7, J7, etc) than it is a call. Given your history with this guy I don't think those combos are there. Plus, guys don't normally go for the check-raise AI on the river as a bluff when this deep. I usually see bets like 80-90 ish. Also, I wouldn't factor in the cooler on the other table in this hand. The reason is, we don't know if that is causing him to tilt and we don't know how he tilts. Some guys tighten way up when they tilt and some guys go crazy. So, as much as it sucks, I think a fold here is best.

    On a side note, if you get a guy playing this loose pre, and straight forward post flop I recommend playing around with opening 5+ bb pre with your entire range. The main idea is that you are generating bigger pots for your big hands, but also since he is playing straight forward you are going to get a lot of opportunities with your junk to get him to fold as well. As you notice how he adjusts you can make adjustments such as opening to 5 with a polarized range and going back to 3 with your middle hands, tightening up your range just slightly and keeping the rest at a 5bb open, opening the top half of your range to 5 and the rest to 3 (or the opposite of this), etc. If a guy is going to let you take advantage of him often, it pays to take advantage in bigger pots




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