AJ on The Button

[UmmTasty]

Full Tilt Poker, $5000/10000 1000 Ante No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
DragTheBar (http://www.dragthebar.com/) Hand Convertor (http://www.dragthebar.com/pokerhandconverter/)

Board:
UTG: $259,321
UTG+1: $459,090
MP1: $186,916
CO: $996,124
Button: $178,676
SB: $350,862
BB: $306,496
MP2: $567,693
MP4: $453,680

Dealt to Button J:diamond: A:spade:

Pre-flop:
(4 folds), MP1 raises to $44,000

My assumption is that this is a shove or fold spot, with it usually being a shove. How tight does this guy need to be for it to be a fold?

[Brent Sheirbon]

Yeah, definitely Fold or Shove. I'm probably shoving unless this guy is single digit VPIP/PFR.
-Brent

[HeyImDro]

In a vacuum this is a fold IMO because shoving here is essentially a bluff--which is ok with a good read. A couple of factors to consider:

-look at his raise size...is this his standard? it's huge! When someone does this I typically assign them a bit of a stronger range, considering they are typically raising this big because they have a hand they want to go with preflop. if he made a normal 2-3x raise, i'd be much more inclined to go with it.
-what's the buyin?
-have you seen him raise/fold on this stack before at all? what other circumstances were relevant in that instance?
-

[UmmTasty]

This was either the double deuce or a $10 super stack tourny on tilt. At the time of this hand this guy was an 8/4 after a little over 20 hands so I really haven't seen anything from him at this point.

I did fold here but I'm more curious about when this becomes a shove or fold and what the deciding factors are.

[HeyImDro]

So, as I began to explain, if he's been active, if you've seen him raise/fold under similar circumstances, those are two factors that would persuade me to shove. As it stands, i'd basically never shove over a 4.4x open from an 18bb stack as a bluff--and this is a bluff as you prob don't get called by worse.

[ChipSteela]

I'm not even considering anything else besides folding here. When players make huge opens like this with that stack size there range is almost always AQ+, or Ts+ from my experience. They basically just want to take the pot down without having to make any post flop decisions, but regardless I think they are hardly ever folding. Your hand does terribly against that range, and since we have hardly any information about this opponent I usually just ere on the safe side and it lay it down without thinking much about it. Dro basically hit the nail on the head with situations where I would be more likely to shove, but I'd also add if the raise came from somewhere like the co or button I'd give a lot more consideration since your often ahead of that opening range if they have been active whatsoever.

[Brent Sheirbon]

oops, i missed the pfr size. yeah, agreed, with that raise size from MP that makes it a must fold unless he's proven to be a maniac or splash-folder.