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Slow Losing Poker Sessions – Here is How to Make Sense of Them

Posted by BlackRain79

Slow Losing Poker Sessions - Here's How to Make Sense of Them

We've all been there. They happen quite frequently even to the biggest winners especially at any stakes above NL10. They are those slow losing poker sessions where you can't quite put your finger on exactly what went wrong. It is not as if you ran into a bunch of coolers or bad beats all at once. That is something that I call a "hell session" where you simply cannot win a hand to save your life. They also seem to have the nuts every time. No, it was just a slow decline. You actually thought that you played pretty well. However, when all was said and done you were a couple buyins worse the wear.

Making sense of these sessions is difficult especially for newer players. It is also hard for people who have marginal or negative winrates because they will happen very, very frequently to them. It is important to realize though that these sessions are a natural occurrence for everybody who plays poker. They are part of the variance that comes with playing this game. The key is to make sure that they were unavoidable and you were not the problem.

The Most Important Stat

The first stat that I always look at when analyzing a slow losing session like this is WSD. In more precise terms this refers to the percentage of the time that you won money (the pot) when you went to showdown. In Pokertracker 4 this stat should already be added by default. The same goes for any other poker tracking program. If it is not, then add it right away.

Most winning players have a WSD that hovers somewhere between the high 40's and the mid 50's (if your WSD is significantly outside of this range then there might be some deeper fundamental issues with your game). If you had a slow losing session then it is likely that you will be in the mid or low 40's. Anywhere below this (in the 30's for instance) is definitely a hell session.

The difference between a winning and losing session can often be a very fine line. Often it will boil down to just a few key pots. However the cumulative effect of losing just 5% or 10% less often at showdown than you normally do can easily make the difference as well.

Win/Loss Ratio of Medium Sized Pots

As I talked about in a post earlier this year about how to conduct a session review it is easy to filter for pots between a certain size in PT or HEM. Again, in these small losing sessions it is assumed that the big pots (you stacked someone or they stacked you) roughly even out. So I want to know what happened in a bunch of smaller pots of roughly 30bb-100bb in size.

Most winning players over the long haul should have a decided advantage in winning versus losing pots of this size. In a slow losing session though you will likely have quite a few more than normal in the losing category. It is key that you examine the losing hands carefully and make sure that the reason you lost them was outside of your control.

As I talk about near the end of Modern Small Stakes there are a number of key questions that you should be asking yourself when reviewing these hands.

  • Could I have won this pot with a different line?
  • Did I correctly make use of all the HUD data that I had on my opponent at the time? (i.e. imbalances that can be exploited)
  • Did I put my opponent on a correct range based on the action in the hand and the player type?

If you are satisfied that in the majority of these hands that there is no better way that you could have played it, then you just have to move on and accept the results. If not then this is the time to note the mistakes that you made and make adjustments in the future.

The Long Run is Long

As we know winning poker is just a series of good decisions made over the long run. At limits above NL10 where the winrates for most long term winning players are typically not above 5bb/100 a sizeable number of your sessions are going to end negatively even if you did everything right. It is important to understand that this is simply a reality in today's games.

As long as you are confident that you made good decisions most of the time (nobody is perfect) then you have nothing to worry about. I often don't even bother reviewing these types of sessions anymore. The WSD stat usually tells me everything that I need to know. But for newer or struggling players it is a good idea to review your medium sized losing pots frequently. This is often where the difference between winning and losing players is found.

Anybody can stack someone with a set when their opponent has an overpair. Everybody goes broke when they run KK into AA. These pots play themselves. You need to make sure that you are doing everything in your power to win the pots when nobody has anything (or at least anything very good). Everything else is just a part of the natural cycle of variance in this game that we all go through.

How do you approach slow losing poker sessions?

Nathan Williams aka "BlackRain79" is a poker player, coach, DragTheBar instructor and the author of Crushing the Microstakes and Modern Small Stakes.

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The Poker Problem – What Does Your Behaviour Say About YOU?

Posted by preachercasy151

Brian take the train a lot. When he is travelling solo, he likes to read a book and relax. There are days, however, when groups of boisterous teens or arguing couples ruin his relaxing journey.

‘Those inconsiderate so-and-sos’ thinks Brian, ‘how could anybody be so rude and oblivious to the noise they’re making? Anybody making that much commotion on a public train is clearly a selfish person. I bet they were brought up badly by their parents.’

This time it’s different!

A week later, and Brian is travelling to the cup final with his friends. Some beers get cracked open, a sing-song is started. Brian is loving every second when a middle-aged lady catches his eye. He knows exactly what she’s thinking: ‘those inconsiderate so-and-sos…’

But this is different. It’s the cup final! Brian is with the guys! He hasn’t seen some of them for years! Plus, it’s a one-off. Brian doesn’t usually act like this…

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Can you relate to Brian?

Here’s the crucial bit: when reflecting on others, we tend to use their behaviour to make judgments as to their character. Someone who is obnoxious in public is a rude person.

When reflecting on ourselves, we tend to use circumstances to explain our behaviour. When we are obnoxious in public, it is because of the external factors. It is cup final day, or it is because we are excited at catching up with friends.

We do not re-evaluate our character because of our actions, but we do use them to evaluate the character of others.

This is called correspondence bias.

In poker, we are quick to label players as fish (or nits, or nutters, or whatever) based on a hand that we deem bizarre. We use scanty evidence to make judgments as to the character of our opponents, deeming them tilt-monkeys or probable-drunks or likely-degens, because they played a hand of poker a little strangely.

However, when we make a reckless re-jam or a loose call, we dismiss it as a mis-read or a mis-click or a mystery. We blame the circumstances – often with due reason – for our errors in judgment. Even when we know that we are on tilt, we write it off as an anomalous development which is not representative of our typical poker game.

Character vs Behaviour

There are people who have multiple affairs or who commit fraud or who bite other players on the football pitch who will argue that they are not bad people, but they had a momentary lapse in judgment.

Outsiders looking in, so quick to judge, will label them ‘scumbags’ and speculate that they are bad parents, liabilities as employees, and selfish in all aspects of life.

Brian on the train will argue that he acted selfishly, but is not a selfish person. Then in his next breath, he will argue that the couple having a shouting match on the train are selfish people and terrible partners and bad parents.

Correspondence bias in poker can be kept in check by refraining from making judgments as to the character or traits of opponents, based on moves that could be explained by circumstances (game flow, erroneous belief in fold equity, mass-multi-tabling mis-clicks etc).

And, by extension, it is important to task your poker coach with keeping you in check when it comes to justifying your own play. Sometimes you will be on tilt and eager to blame it on external factors. Make your coach earn their money by keeping a close eye on the development of leaks that you are eager to blame on easily-explainable errors.

Does correspondence bias ring a bell with you? Have a little think about scenarios in which you are too quick to extend your judgments as to behaviour onto their character, and give the article a share on Facebook and Twitter!

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Announcing the Release of my 2nd Book “Modern Small Stakes”

Posted by BlackRain79

The Release of Modern Small Stakes

Finally!

Well, it is nearly 7 months now after the promised release date but I am extremely happy to officially announce the release of my 2nd book, "Modern Small Stakes." This is indeed the long promised "CTM2." I chose to go with a completely different title because this is a completely different book. Modern Small Stakes focuses on higher limits (NL10-NL100) than Crushing the Microstakes (NL2-NL5). It is also far more advanced in theory and depth on every level. This book was infinitely harder to write and turned out to be double the length of its predecessor at over 500 pages.

When I first started to work on Modern Small Stakes about a year and a half ago I set a goal to write the best book ever written on these limits. I really felt (and still do) that the literature out there is really lacking at these stakes especially regarding today's games.

In retrospect this goal of mine was  probably a bit foolish because it made me demand perfectionism at every corner and ensured countless revisions and alterations of the text. It also made the length of the book far greater than I had originally planned. I felt that this was necessary though in order to get across everything that I wanted to say about these stakes.

These are two of the main reasons why it took so long for me to release this book. I sincerely apologize to all of those who have been waiting for months on end and asking for updates. On the bright side, I am confident that I accomplished my goal.

I believe that Modern Small Stakes will be a game-changer in the poker world for full ring and 6max small stakes NLHE cash games. It covers every aspect of the game at these limits in extensive detail from HUD setup, player type analysis, game selection, 3Betting, 4Betting, 5Betting, balancing your range, CBetting frequencies, barreling frequencies, bluffing frequencies, intentionally tilting other regs and so much more. With over 100 highly detailed examples involving real opponents and real situations at these stakes, every effort was made to explain how to translate the theory into practice.

 

Table of Contents 
(right click and open in a new tab to enlarge)

Before I say anything else about the book let me post the table of contents so that you can get a better idea of what is included. The table of contents is also featured in the official Youtube release video for Modern Small Stakes.

The heart of Modern Small Stakes is teaching how to break down your opponent at these limits to the finest detail. This is why there is extensive discussion of effective HUD use throughout this book. In MSS I also assume that your opponents are reasonably good thinking regulars 95% of the time. Therefore, issues of balancing your range in all situations play a heavy role as well.

Whereas CTM consisted of a playbook macro type approach to exploiting the terrible players who populate the very lowest stakes, MSS is about micro managing versus fairly good players. What becomes evident to the reader early on in the book is that all players at these stakes really do have fairly significant leaks. They just aren't as readily noticeable as they are with the massive donkeys who dominate every table at the lowest limits.

This is why Modern Small Stakes is extremely example heavy (102 of them to be exact and roughly 50% 6max and 50% full ring). As you move up the stakes success becomes more and more about throwing the "standard play" out the window at times and finding the line that yields the highest EV for this particular opponent, in this particular situation. Therefore, there are a lot of outside the box, "advanced" or "fancy plays" suggested in this book. But they are always made for the right reasons.

My hope once again with Modern Small Stakes is that it takes your game to the next level. More precisely, that it improves your bottom line at the tables. This is why you will find the same linear and practical approach in this book as you did in CTM. There is a vast amount of information presented in this book which covers every aspect of the game. Modern Small Stakes is by no means a casual read. It was created for people who take this game very seriously and are ready to put in the hard hours studying its contents and then applying it at the tables.

I want to thank everyone who supported me on my blog, via email, here on DTB, Facebook, Twitter and many other places throughout this (frankly insane) project. You helped me during the countless times in the past year when I didn't know if I would ever be able to finish this book.

Modern Small Stakes is massive and comprehensive. It was meant to be the "be all end all" definitive guide for these limits. It was absolutely the hardest thing that I have ever done in my life. I am finally satisfied with it now though. I hope you are too.

 

Screenshots 

(right click and open in a new tab to enlarge)

 

Purchasing Information

The official sales page for Modern Small Stakes is located here.

 

Modern Small Stakes Technical Details

  • Please be aware that Modern Small Stakes is only available in the PDF format right now. One of my first priorities will be to start working on the Kindle, iPad and tablet versions of the book. Just like before with CTM, when these are released they will be made available free of charge to all previous buyers.
  • Bonus materials that are likely to be released alongside Modern Small Stakes in the coming months will also be made available to all previous buyers at no cost.

 

***Please leave a comment below, send  me a PM here at DTB or email me at blackrain79@dragthebar.com if you have any questions about Modern Small Stakes. 

Pages: 500

Word Count: 81,263

Copyright © 2014 by Nathan Williams

Ten Poker Outlook Tips to Improve Motivation and Focus

Posted by preachercasy151

Poker strategy is written about by every Tom, Dick, and Harry. However, in my frustration at the shortage of worthwhile poker outlook ‘heuristics’ (handy little rules of thumb), I decided to do something about it.

 

Here are ten little heuristics to improve your awareness and focus at the poker tables.

-          A good poker player is one who doesn’t get in his own way

-          You are only as good as your C-game

-          Awareness is curative (thanks to Timothy Gallwey for this one!)

-          A great poker player is one who can analyse herself without rushing to judgment

-          Experimenting and curiosity came before ‘rules’; never be bound by              conventional theory. ‘Rules’ are created after discovery through creativity.

-          You will never be great if the desire to study only arises when on a bad run

-          The only thing that truly matters is this decision in front of you, right now

-          Tilt is not entirely a bad thing; a little bit of poison strengthens the immune  system

-          We must bankroll with excessive, almost embarrassing conservatism to avoid to truly focus on the long game

-          We must prepare for even the most remote possibilities, as they are often the  most impactful

 

Do you agree with my ten heuristics? Let me know which are the most useful – and which you take issue with. And of course, please take a moment to use the Share buttons to spread the word.

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